State House Redistricting - District 84 (HD-84)

State House - District 84
Current Rep - Kurt Damrow (R-Port Austin) - Defeated in primary

Candidates:
GOP - Dan Grimshaw (R-Vassar)
DEM - Terry Brown (D-Pigeon)

Update - 5-27-2012 - This is going to be a very tough defense, and possibly our toughest non concession defense. Damrow's been in the news and has a strong primary challenger in Dan Grimshaw, Tuscola County Register of Deeds. In addition, Terry Brown wants to make a comeback. He almost survived 2010 as an incumbent. I'm calling this a tossup for now.

Update 8-30-2012 - This is still a tough defense but got easier. Terry Brown won the primary for the dems as expected, but Damrow got fired and from what I've heard, deserving so. Grimshaw's a good candidate and should do better than Damrow did, but Brown's still a popular guy there. Still a tossup.

Old District (84th)
Kurt Damrow - 15,183
Terry Brown - 15,153

This is an unchanged district covering Huron and Tuscola Counties in the thumb. It is a person over party district and a swing district if Terry Brown wants a rematch. The dems took this district with Brown back in 2006. The dems also came close in 2002. While national democrats who are social liberals are strongly disliked in the thumb, locals are much more competitive. Brown only lost because of 2010 as he ran well ahead of Obama (and remember that McCain quit Michigan). Tuscola County in particular was very unfriendly to all democrats, and Brown was caught up in that wave. Huron County though didn't turn on him like they did others. Small town politics often survives wave elections if one works hard enough.

I'm going to call this a swing district if Brown wants his old job back. If not, it can very between lean R and swing. I'm hearing about some grumblings up that way, so I'm not calling this one safe.

	McCain	Obama	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Huron County	8434	8367	16801	67	50.20%	49.80%	0.40%
Tuscola County	13740	13503	27243	237	50.43%	49.57%	0.87%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	22174	21870	44044	304	50.35%	49.65%	0.69%
	Bush	Kerry	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Huron County	9671	7629	17300	2042	55.90%	44.10%	11.80%
Tuscola County	15389	12631	28020	2758	54.92%	45.08%	9.84%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	25060	20260	45320	4800	55.30%	44.70%	10.59%
Last State House	GOP	Dem	Total	Diff	GOP	DEM	Diff
Huron County	5625	6481	12106	-856	46.46%	53.54%	-7.07%
Tuscola County	9558	8672	18230	886	52.43%	47.57%	4.86%
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
			0	0	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!
Total	15183	15153	30336	30	50.05%	49.95%	0.10%