Current Rep - Joel Johnson (R - Clare)
Candidates:
GOP - Joel Johnson (R-Clare)
Dem - Chris Breznau (D-Standish)
Old District (97th)
Joel Johnson - 16,818
Mark Lightfoot - 10,657
I always nothing say comes easy Up North. It's a highly independent area which is often underestimated by both parties. Oftentimes control of the house is decided not in Oakland County or Macomb County, but here and in the thumb.
The old 97th District was a key battleground. It was created in 2002 to elect a republican, but Jennifer Elkins caught our side looking. Tradition carried the day. She then voted against a gay marriage ban. While she didn't tick off the gun groups, religious conservatives are strong in the district. Tim Moore got a big win in 2004 and held on in the 2006 and 2008 tough defenses. Joel Johnson won big in 2010, but this still isn't safe. The North Michigan electorate is still quite volatile right now.
The new district is safer, but I still can not call this safe. It's a swing district. The old district had all of Clare, Gladwin, Arenac, and most of rural Bay County outside the City. All of those areas are competitive with a bit of democrat leaning in Bay and Arenac. In 2002, Elkins won narrowly in Arenac, Bay, and Gladwin Counties, and won by 363 votes. In 2004, Tim Moore won by about 1500 based on Arenac, Clare, and Gladwin Counties. He only lost Bay. Arenac went for Kerry, so Moore ran ahead there. He won 2006 by about 2500 votes, only losing Bay. Moore won surprisingly easily in 2008. In 2010, the dems were crushed in this region, and Johnson won easily.
I'm not convinced 2010 wasn't an aberration Up North. It's too independent. The new district drops rural Bay County and adds a portion of much more Republican Osceola County, which is a base county. On paper, this is slightly less conservative or Republican as the old Dale/Joel Sheltrown districts next door, although Osceola isn't a Missaukee County. The GOP thought they had a shot there, but those were two extremely strong candidates. If the dems find a Sheltrown type or a Barcia type here, they can win this thing.
| McCain | Obama | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff | |
| Arenac County | 3807 | 4155 | 7962 | -348 | 47.81% | 52.19% | -4.37% |
| Clare County | 6793 | 7496 | 14289 | -703 | 47.54% | 52.46% | -4.92% |
| Gladwin County | 6391 | 6590 | 12981 | -199 | 49.23% | 50.77% | -1.53% |
| Osceola County: | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Evart | 316 | 357 | 673 | -41 | 46.95% | 53.05% | -6.09% |
| Evart Twp | 371 | 329 | 700 | 42 | 53.00% | 47.00% | 6.00% |
| Hersey Twp | 433 | 432 | 865 | 1 | 50.06% | 49.94% | 0.12% |
| Highland Twp | 363 | 192 | 555 | 171 | 65.41% | 34.59% | 30.81% |
| Marion Twp | 389 | 332 | 721 | 57 | 53.95% | 46.05% | 7.91% |
| Middle Branch Twp | 215 | 161 | 376 | 54 | 57.18% | 42.82% | 14.36% |
| Orient Twp | 213 | 174 | 387 | 39 | 55.04% | 44.96% | 10.08% |
| Osceola Twp | 290 | 221 | 511 | 69 | 56.75% | 43.25% | 13.50% |
| Sherman Twp | 334 | 215 | 549 | 119 | 60.84% | 39.16% | 21.68% |
| Sylvan Twp | 230 | 224 | 454 | 6 | 50.66% | 49.34% | 1.32% |
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Total | 20145 | 20878 | 41023 | -733 | 49.11% | 50.89% | -1.79% |
| Bush | Kerry | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff | |
| Arenac County | 4071 | 4076 | 8147 | -5 | 49.97% | 50.03% | -0.06% |
| Clare County | 7088 | 6984 | 14072 | 104 | 50.37% | 49.63% | 0.74% |
| Gladwin County | 6770 | 6343 | 13113 | 427 | 51.63% | 48.37% | 3.26% |
| Osceola County: | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Evart | 375 | 320 | 695 | 55 | 53.96% | 46.04% | 7.91% |
| Evart Twp | 465 | 333 | 798 | 132 | 58.27% | 41.73% | 16.54% |
| Hersey Twp | 461 | 404 | 865 | 57 | 53.29% | 46.71% | 6.59% |
| Highland Twp | 408 | 138 | 546 | 270 | 74.73% | 25.27% | 49.45% |
| Marion Twp | 423 | 277 | 700 | 146 | 60.43% | 39.57% | 20.86% |
| Middle Branch Twp | 228 | 169 | 397 | 59 | 57.43% | 42.57% | 14.86% |
| Orient Twp | 231 | 177 | 408 | 54 | 56.62% | 43.38% | 13.24% |
| Osceola Twp | 257 | 200 | 457 | 57 | 56.24% | 43.76% | 12.47% |
| Sherman Twp | 339 | 179 | 518 | 160 | 65.44% | 34.56% | 30.89% |
| Sylvan Twp | 272 | 199 | 471 | 73 | 57.75% | 42.25% | 15.50% |
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Total | 21388 | 19799 | 41187 | 1589 | 51.93% | 48.07% | 3.86% |
| Last St House | GOP | DEM | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff |
| Arenac County | 2878 | 1899 | 4777 | 979 | 60.25% | 39.75% | 20.49% |
| Clare County | 5775 | 3179 | 8954 | 2596 | 64.50% | 35.50% | 28.99% |
| Gladwin County | 5272 | 3236 | 8508 | 2036 | 61.97% | 38.03% | 23.93% |
| Osceola County: | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Evart | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Evart Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Hersey Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Highland Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Marion Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Middle Branch Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Orient Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Osceola Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Sherman Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Sylvan Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Total | 13925 | 8314 | 22239 | 5611 | 62.62% | 37.38% | 25.23% |
0 comments:
Post a Comment