Current Rep - Sharon Tyler (R - Niles) - Not running for re-election.
GOP - Dave Pagel (R-Berrien Springs)
DEM - Jack Arbanas (D-Buchanan),
Update 5-27-2012 - Tyler's running for Berrien County Clerk instead. With the proximity to Chicago and South Bend, I'm a little worried about the district this year. There's primaries on both sides, which is good.
Update - Dave Pagel and Jack Arbanas won their primaries for the open seat.
Old District (78th)
Sharon Tyler - 15,218
Cindy Ellis - 8010
This district on paper should lean Republican, but the old district has given us some close calls. In 2008, Tyler won by 1600 votes. In 2006, Neal Nitz won by 900. 2004 was better (6000) as was 2002 (3100). This is a district that can't be taken for granted. It is what I call a prototypical "caught looking" district. There isn't a lot of major strongholds here for the GOP. There are some small strong areas, and a couple of lean dem areas, but there's no Benton Harbor here, nor Lincoln Township. While the GOP has historically won this district, it's not a gimme in a bad year as shown by the 06/08 numbers.
The old district covered in Berrien County Baroda, Berrien, Bertrand, Buchanan, Chikaming, Galien, New Buffalo, Oronoko, Pipestone, Three Oaks, and Weesaw Townships as well as the cities of Buchanan, Niles, and New Buffalo. It also covered in Cass County the City of Dowagiac, Howard, Silver Creek, and Wayne Townships.
The new district drops Dowagiac and Wayne Township and picks up Milton and Ontwa Townships in Cass County. It picks up Sodus Township in Berrien County. The rest of this stays the same. That makes it slightly safer with Dowagiac's dem leanings, but I'll consider this district lean GOP and not safe. In addition, keep in mind that the influence here is Chicago and South Bend, not Grand Rapids or Detroit. Obama is from Chicago, and did extremely well within a 90 minute radius of the city, including Berrien County. Part of that was Benton Harbor, but he did well in both Berrien County districts. We'll need to be prepared for trouble here, especially this year. There's no excuse to be caught looking when your opponent catches fire and causes an upset victory.
| McCain | Obama | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff | |
| Berrien County: | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Baroda Twp | 851 | 614 | 1465 | 237 | 58.09% | 41.91% | 16.18% |
| Berrien Twp | 1398 | 903 | 2301 | 495 | 60.76% | 39.24% | 21.51% |
| Bertrand Twp | 776 | 642 | 1418 | 134 | 54.72% | 45.28% | 9.45% |
| Buchanan | 792 | 1140 | 1932 | -348 | 40.99% | 59.01% | -18.01% |
| Buchanan Twp | 895 | 794 | 1689 | 101 | 52.99% | 47.01% | 5.98% |
| Chikaming Twp | 907 | 950 | 1857 | -43 | 48.84% | 51.16% | -2.32% |
| Galien Twp | 312 | 381 | 693 | -69 | 45.02% | 54.98% | -9.96% |
| New Buffalo | 390 | 504 | 894 | -114 | 43.62% | 56.38% | -12.75% |
| New Buffalo Twp | 591 | 739 | 1330 | -148 | 44.44% | 55.56% | -11.13% |
| Niles | 1712 | 2976 | 4688 | -1264 | 36.52% | 63.48% | -26.96% |
| Niles Twp | 2906 | 3301 | 6207 | -395 | 46.82% | 53.18% | -6.36% |
| Oronoko Twp | 1794 | 1858 | 3652 | -64 | 49.12% | 50.88% | -1.75% |
| Pipestone Twp | 662 | 395 | 1057 | 267 | 62.63% | 37.37% | 25.26% |
| Sodus Twp | 559 | 411 | 970 | 148 | 57.63% | 42.37% | 15.26% |
| Three Oaks Twp | 627 | 770 | 1397 | -143 | 44.88% | 55.12% | -10.24% |
| Weesaw Twp | 540 | 454 | 994 | 86 | 54.33% | 45.67% | 8.65% |
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Cass County: | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Howard Twp | 1363 | 1590 | 2953 | -227 | 46.16% | 53.84% | -7.69% |
| Milton Twp | 895 | 661 | 1556 | 234 | 57.52% | 42.48% | 15.04% |
| Ontwa Twp | 1237 | 1241 | 2478 | -4 | 49.92% | 50.08% | -0.16% |
| Silver Creek Twp | 840 | 749 | 1589 | 91 | 52.86% | 47.14% | 5.73% |
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Total | 20047 | 21073 | 41120 | -1026 | 48.75% | 51.25% | -2.50% |
| Bush | Kerry | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff | |
| Berrien County: | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Baroda Twp | 969 | 474 | 1443 | 495 | 67.15% | 32.85% | 34.30% |
| Berrien Twp | 1552 | 708 | 2260 | 844 | 68.67% | 31.33% | 37.35% |
| Bertrand Twp | 799 | 541 | 1340 | 258 | 59.63% | 40.37% | 19.25% |
| Buchanan | 1005 | 958 | 1963 | 47 | 51.20% | 48.80% | 2.39% |
| Buchanan Twp | 1014 | 741 | 1755 | 273 | 57.78% | 42.22% | 15.56% |
| Chikaming Twp | 1124 | 842 | 1966 | 282 | 57.17% | 42.83% | 14.34% |
| Galien Twp | 376 | 334 | 710 | 42 | 52.96% | 47.04% | 5.92% |
| New Buffalo | 474 | 451 | 925 | 23 | 51.24% | 48.76% | 2.49% |
| New Buffalo Twp | 624 | 675 | 1299 | -51 | 48.04% | 51.96% | -3.93% |
| Niles | 2145 | 2426 | 4571 | -281 | 46.93% | 53.07% | -6.15% |
| Niles Twp | 3210 | 2705 | 5915 | 505 | 54.27% | 45.73% | 8.54% |
| Oronoko Twp | 2057 | 1310 | 3367 | 747 | 61.09% | 38.91% | 22.19% |
| Pipestone Twp | 724 | 330 | 1054 | 394 | 68.69% | 31.31% | 37.38% |
| Sodus Twp | 566 | 344 | 910 | 222 | 62.20% | 37.80% | 24.40% |
| Three Oaks Twp | 826 | 583 | 1409 | 243 | 58.62% | 41.38% | 17.25% |
| Weesaw Twp | 627 | 369 | 996 | 258 | 62.95% | 37.05% | 25.90% |
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Cass County: | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Howard Twp | 1599 | 1327 | 2926 | 272 | 54.65% | 45.35% | 9.30% |
| Milton Twp | 921 | 523 | 1444 | 398 | 63.78% | 36.22% | 27.56% |
| Ontwa Twp | 1730 | 921 | 2651 | 809 | 65.26% | 34.74% | 30.52% |
| Silver Creek Twp | 963 | 639 | 1602 | 324 | 60.11% | 39.89% | 20.22% |
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Total | 23305 | 17201 | 40506 | 6104 | 57.53% | 42.47% | 15.07% |
| Last St House | GOP | DEM | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff |
| Berrien County: | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Baroda Twp | 705 | 242 | 947 | 463 | 74.45% | 25.55% | 48.89% |
| Berrien Twp | 1094 | 341 | 1435 | 753 | 76.24% | 23.76% | 52.47% |
| Bertrand Twp | 689 | 218 | 907 | 471 | 75.96% | 24.04% | 51.93% |
| Buchanan | 655 | 435 | 1090 | 220 | 60.09% | 39.91% | 20.18% |
| Buchanan Twp | 786 | 323 | 1109 | 463 | 70.87% | 29.13% | 41.75% |
| Chikaming Twp | 736 | 574 | 1310 | 162 | 56.18% | 43.82% | 12.37% |
| Galien Twp | 249 | 145 | 394 | 104 | 63.20% | 36.80% | 26.40% |
| New Buffalo | 300 | 271 | 571 | 29 | 52.54% | 47.46% | 5.08% |
| New Buffalo Twp | 464 | 354 | 818 | 110 | 56.72% | 43.28% | 13.45% |
| Niles | 1402 | 1060 | 2462 | 342 | 56.95% | 43.05% | 13.89% |
| Niles Twp | 2405 | 1202 | 3607 | 1203 | 66.68% | 33.32% | 33.35% |
| Oronoko Twp | 1392 | 631 | 2023 | 761 | 68.81% | 31.19% | 37.62% |
| Pipestone Twp | 554 | 163 | 717 | 391 | 77.27% | 22.73% | 54.53% |
| Sodus Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Three Oaks Twp | 466 | 297 | 763 | 169 | 61.07% | 38.93% | 22.15% |
| Weesaw Twp | 432 | 193 | 625 | 239 | 69.12% | 30.88% | 38.24% |
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Cass County: | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Howard Twp | 1158 | 549 | 1707 | 609 | 67.84% | 32.16% | 35.68% |
| Milton Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Ontwa Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Silver Creek Twp | 742 | 262 | 1004 | 480 | 73.90% | 26.10% | 47.81% |
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Total | 14229 | 7260 | 21489 | 6969 | 66.22% | 33.78% | 32.43% |
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