Incumbents - Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Twp) and Sander Levin (D-Royal Oak/Roseville) - Peters is running in the 14th District.
Years in office as of 2012 election - 2 and 30
Challengers - Don Volaric (R-Clinton Twp)
Update 8-30-2012 - Volaric won his primary and will be facing Levin. Peters won the primary in the 14th District.
Update 5-16-2012 - Volaric is seeking a 12th district rematch with Levin. Dildillian is running as well.
The old 9th district was practically eliminated. It was divided up and parts were given to Mike Rogers, Thad McCotter, John Conyers, and Sander Levin. This is really more of a descendant of the old 12th district. The new 12th district is a combination of the old 15th and 1990's era 16th districts of John Dingell.
I'm going to analyze this district from the perspective of this being the 12th and Sander Levin's district since this is much more his district than Peters. Levin long represented SE Oakland County, and has also had SW Macomb county for years as well. He can move back to Royal Oak for this district too.
Levin gives up the City of Southfield, Oak Park, Lathrup Village, and Royal Oak Township to John Conyers. He picks up Berkley, Royal Oak, Madison Heights, Southfield Township (Bingham Farms/Franklin), part of Clawson, and Bloomfield Township from the old 9th district. The district still splits Sterling Heights and has about 2/3 of it. Gary Peters is in this district as well. Peters has several options. He can run for Oakland County executive as rumored, or against Levin, McCotter, Conyers, or Rogers (he was once city council in Rochester Hills).
This district, like the old 12th is a blue sink. It's not as much of one as the old 12th since the bluest part went to John Conyers. It's gone from an approximate 68000 Kerry and 104000 Obama vote spread to "closer" numbers of about 26000 and 66000 vote spreads. It's still out of reach outside of a best case scenario (1980 Reagan) but a district I'd look to contest in a year like 2010. Tory Rocca might be able to win this district in a 2010 type of year. It'd be a longshot, but I wouldn't call it impossible. If lesser known Don Volaric can hold Levin to about a 20000 vote spread in this portion of the district, then Rocca could probably at least cut that in half without a lot of trouble....in a 2010 year.
Overall though, my money is on Levin holding this district if he doesn't want to retire at 81. Peters won't sell in Warren, and Levin will trump him in the Huntington Woods types of areas. Even if Levin retires, one of many strong South Macomb democrats may want to go after Peters in a primary and would have a good shot, especially if he had a Polish or Italian last name.
| 2008 | |||||||
| McCain | Obama | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff | |
| Macomb County: | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Center Line | 1431 | 2462 | 3893 | -1031 | 36.76% | 63.24% | -26.48% |
| Clinton Twp | 21133 | 27722 | 48855 | -6589 | 43.26% | 56.74% | -13.49% |
| Eastpointe | 4670 | 11182 | 15852 | -6512 | 29.46% | 70.54% | -41.08% |
| Fraser | 3601 | 4161 | 7762 | -560 | 46.39% | 53.61% | -7.21% |
| Lake Twp/GP Shores | 27 | 13 | 40 | 14 | 67.50% | 32.50% | 35.00% |
| Mt Clemens | 2393 | 5171 | 7564 | -2778 | 31.64% | 68.36% | -36.73% |
| Roseville | 7679 | 13739 | 21418 | -6060 | 35.85% | 64.15% | -28.29% |
| St Clair Shores | 16098 | 18531 | 34629 | -2433 | 46.49% | 53.51% | -7.03% |
| Sterling Hghts (2/3) | 18157 | 21126 | 39283 | -2969 | 46.22% | 53.78% | -7.56% |
| Warren | 24006 | 36901 | 60907 | -12895 | 39.41% | 60.59% | -21.17% |
| Oakland County | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Berkley | 3560 | 5715 | 9275 | -2155 | 38.38% | 61.62% | -23.23% |
| Bloomfield Twp | 14368 | 12886 | 27254 | 1482 | 52.72% | 47.28% | 5.44% |
| Clawson (1/5) | 600 | 782 | 1382 | -182 | 43.42% | 56.58% | -13.17% |
| Ferndale | 2621 | 8532 | 11153 | -5911 | 23.50% | 76.50% | -53.00% |
| Hazel Park | 2279 | 4461 | 6740 | -2182 | 33.81% | 66.19% | -32.37% |
| Huntington Woods | 1041 | 3255 | 4296 | -2214 | 24.23% | 75.77% | -51.54% |
| Madison Heights | 5088 | 8017 | 13105 | -2929 | 38.82% | 61.18% | -22.35% |
| Pleasant Ridge | 512 | 1311 | 1823 | -799 | 28.09% | 71.91% | -43.83% |
| Royal Oak | 13094 | 21650 | 34744 | -8556 | 37.69% | 62.31% | -24.63% |
| Southfield Twp | 4570 | 4925 | 9495 | -355 | 48.13% | 51.87% | -3.74% |
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Total | 146928 | 212542 | 359470 | -65614 | 40.87% | 59.13% | -18.25% |
| 2004 | |||||||
| Bush | Kerry | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff | |
| Macomb County: | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Center Line | 1613 | 2312 | 3925 | -699 | 41.10% | 58.90% | -17.81% |
| Clinton Twp | 23332 | 23842 | 47174 | -510 | 49.46% | 50.54% | -1.08% |
| Eastpointe | 5838 | 9766 | 15604 | -3928 | 37.41% | 62.59% | -25.17% |
| Fraser | 3893 | 3959 | 7852 | -66 | 49.58% | 50.42% | -0.84% |
| Lake Twp/GP Shores | 33 | 15 | 48 | 18 | 68.75% | 31.25% | 37.50% |
| Mt Clemens | 2766 | 4419 | 7185 | -1653 | 38.50% | 61.50% | -23.01% |
| Roseville | 8660 | 12738 | 21398 | -4078 | 40.47% | 59.53% | -19.06% |
| St Clair Shores | 17512 | 18088 | 35600 | -576 | 49.19% | 50.81% | -1.62% |
| Sterling Hghts (2/3) | 20385 | 18941 | 39326 | 1444 | 51.84% | 48.16% | 3.67% |
| Warren | 26991 | 34697 | 61688 | -7706 | 43.75% | 56.25% | -12.49% |
| Oakland County | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Berkley | 4315 | 5027 | 9342 | -712 | 46.19% | 53.81% | -7.62% |
| Bloomfield Twp | 16314 | 11197 | 27511 | 5117 | 59.30% | 40.70% | 18.60% |
| Clawson (1/5) | 716 | 694 | 1410 | 22 | 50.78% | 49.22% | 1.56% |
| Ferndale | 3456 | 7637 | 11093 | -4181 | 31.15% | 68.85% | -37.69% |
| Hazel Park | 2780 | 4412 | 7192 | -1632 | 38.65% | 61.35% | -22.69% |
| Huntington Woods | 1236 | 3068 | 4304 | -1832 | 28.72% | 71.28% | -42.57% |
| Madison Heights | 5934 | 7443 | 13377 | -1509 | 44.36% | 55.64% | -11.28% |
| Pleasant Ridge | 658 | 1140 | 1798 | -482 | 36.60% | 63.40% | -26.81% |
| Royal Oak | 15529 | 19143 | 34672 | -3614 | 44.79% | 55.21% | -10.42% |
| Southfield Twp | 5245 | 4376 | 9621 | 869 | 54.52% | 45.48% | 9.03% |
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Total | 167206 | 192914 | 360120 | -25708 | 46.43% | 53.57% | -7.14% |
| Volaric | Levin | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff | |
| Macomb County: | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Center Line | 876 | 1405 | 2281 | -529 | 38.40% | 61.60% | -23.19% |
| Clinton Twp | 14475 | 14784 | 29259 | -309 | 49.47% | 50.53% | -1.06% |
| Eastpointe | 2859 | 6438 | 9297 | -3579 | 30.75% | 69.25% | -38.50% |
| Fraser | 2423 | 2345 | 4768 | 78 | 50.82% | 49.18% | 1.64% |
| Lake Twp/GP Shores | 21 | 12 | 33 | 9 | 63.64% | 36.36% | 27.27% |
| Mt Clemens | 1597 | 2785 | 4382 | -1188 | 36.44% | 63.56% | -27.11% |
| Roseville | 4663 | 7051 | 11714 | -2388 | 39.81% | 60.19% | -20.39% |
| St Clair Shores | 11182 | 11898 | 23080 | -716 | 48.45% | 51.55% | -3.10% |
| Sterling Hghts (2/3) | 5003 | 5385 | 10388 | -382 | 48.16% | 51.84% | -3.68% |
| Warren | 15443 | 20860 | 36303 | -5417 | 42.54% | 57.46% | -14.92% |
| Oakland County | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Berkley | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Bloomfield Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Clawson (1/5) | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Ferndale | 1649 | 4693 | 6342 | -3044 | 26.00% | 74.00% | -48.00% |
| Hazel Park | 1263 | 2034 | 3297 | -771 | 38.31% | 61.69% | -23.38% |
| Huntington Woods | 763 | 2440 | 3203 | -1677 | 23.82% | 76.18% | -52.36% |
| Madison Heights | 3240 | 4089 | 7329 | -849 | 44.21% | 55.79% | -11.58% |
| Pleasant Ridge | 403 | 930 | 1333 | -527 | 30.23% | 69.77% | -39.53% |
| Royal Oak | 732 | 1148 | 1880 | -416 | 38.94% | 61.06% | -22.13% |
| Southfield Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Total | 66592 | 88297 | 154889 | -21705 | 42.99% | 57.01% | -14.01% |
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