Incumbent - Tim Walberg (R-Tipton)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 4, non consecutive.
The old 7th District information is here
Challengers - Kurt Richard Haskell (D-Newport)
Update 8-30-2012 - Haskell and Walberg won their primaries. The dem establishment got some heartburn from Haskell's win.
Update 5-16-2012 - Tim Walberg caught a break. Three democrats would have been a very competitive race. I don't think Marquez will do so. Haskell is an interesting candidate, all over the place with his views. He was interviewed often as a witness in the underwear bomber case.
This district has changed quite a bit. It's still a swing district. It drops Calhoun County to Justin Amash, where Tim Walberg is strongly disliked. It also drops about 1/2 of Scio Township to Dingell, which is a major democrat stronghold in Washtenaw County. Walberg is only stuck with the "Dexter" part. That's the good news. It picks up York Township instead. The bad news for Walberg is that it adds the City of Milan and Augusta Township in Washtenaw County, as well as all of Monroe County, a swing area that leans slightly democrat, although not as much as it used to. It's about the same as Calhoun County from a partisan standpoint, although it's an unknown in its view of Walberg compared to Eaton (which he still has) and Calhoun Counties. Jackson County and Lenawee Counties are big key swing areas, as is Eaton County. The Washtenaw County portion is still competitive and slightly less democrat dropping the eastern portion of Scio Township. Hillsdale and Branch Counties are still key base areas.
The biggest change though is its homers. The bench for the democrats is smaller in this district compared to the old one. Mark Schauer won't have a rematch. RINO Joe Schwarz won't be stiring up as much trouble either, at least against the guy who made him taste humble pie in a big way.
The hypothetical is this. In a bad year like 08, would Walberg have survived? He had to not lose Augusta, York, Milan, and Monroe County by somewhere between 3700 and 4000 votes. (Scio's spread is likely less than 1480, that's just half of the whole thing). McCain didn't, but Walberg was actually much stronger than McCain. Who knows. In years like 2010, there's plenty to spare.
Obama has about a 12700 vote spread. Bush a 32000 vote spread. Walberg had about a 3800 vote spread in 08 and about a 13300 vote spread in 2010 in the portion of the new district he already represents.
| 2008 | |||||||
| McCain | Obama | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff | |
| Branch County | 9534 | 8413 | 17947 | 1121 | 53.12% | 46.88% | 6.25% |
| Eaton County | 25900 | 30742 | 56642 | -4842 | 45.73% | 54.27% | -8.55% |
| Hillsdale County | 11221 | 8765 | 19986 | 2456 | 56.14% | 43.86% | 12.29% |
| Jackson County | 35692 | 37480 | 73172 | -1788 | 48.78% | 51.22% | -2.44% |
| Lenawee County | 22225 | 24640 | 46865 | -2415 | 47.42% | 52.58% | -5.15% |
| Monroe County | 35858 | 39180 | 75038 | -3322 | 47.79% | 52.21% | -4.43% |
| Washtenaw County: | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Augusta Twp | 1489 | 1979 | 3468 | -490 | 42.94% | 57.06% | -14.13% |
| Bridgewater Twp | 526 | 481 | 1007 | 45 | 52.23% | 47.77% | 4.47% |
| Chelsea City | 1214 | 1748 | 2962 | -534 | 40.99% | 59.01% | -18.03% |
| Dexter Twp | 1730 | 2064 | 3794 | -334 | 45.60% | 54.40% | -8.80% |
| Freedom Twp | 481 | 428 | 909 | 53 | 52.92% | 47.08% | 5.83% |
| Lima Twp | 973 | 973 | 1946 | 0 | 50.00% | 50.00% | 0.00% |
| Lodi Twp | 1894 | 1803 | 3697 | 91 | 51.23% | 48.77% | 2.46% |
| Lyndon Twp | 735 | 843 | 1578 | -108 | 46.58% | 53.42% | -6.84% |
| Manchester Twp | 1241 | 1424 | 2665 | -183 | 46.57% | 53.43% | -6.87% |
| Milan City | 802 | 1151 | 1953 | -349 | 41.07% | 58.93% | -17.87% |
| Northfield Twp | 2109 | 2310 | 4419 | -201 | 47.73% | 52.27% | -4.55% |
| Salem Twp | 2067 | 1510 | 3577 | 557 | 57.79% | 42.21% | 15.57% |
| Saline City | 2221 | 2906 | 5127 | -685 | 43.32% | 56.68% | -13.36% |
| Saline Twp | 539 | 507 | 1046 | 32 | 51.53% | 48.47% | 3.06% |
| Scio Twp (partial) | 1886 | 3854 | 5740 | -1968 | 32.86% | 67.14% | -34.29% |
| Sharon Twp | 556 | 503 | 1059 | 53 | 52.50% | 47.50% | 5.00% |
| Sylvan Twp | 919 | 996 | 1915 | -77 | 47.99% | 52.01% | -4.02% |
| Webster Twp | 1911 | 2186 | 4097 | -275 | 46.64% | 53.36% | -6.71% |
| York Twp | 2313 | 1934 | 4247 | 379 | 54.46% | 45.54% | 8.92% |
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Total | 166036 | 178820 | 344856 | -12784 | 48.15% | 51.85% | -3.71% |
| 2004 | |||||||
| Bush | Kerry | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff | |
| Branch County | 10784 | 7004 | 17788 | 3780 | 60.63% | 39.37% | 21.25% |
| Eaton County | 29781 | 25411 | 55192 | 4370 | 53.96% | 46.04% | 7.92% |
| Hillsdale County | 12804 | 7123 | 19927 | 5681 | 64.25% | 35.75% | 28.51% |
| Jackson County | 40029 | 31025 | 71054 | 9004 | 56.34% | 43.66% | 12.67% |
| Lenawee County | 25675 | 20787 | 46462 | 4888 | 55.26% | 44.74% | 10.52% |
| Monroe County | 37470 | 36089 | 73559 | 1381 | 50.94% | 49.06% | 1.88% |
| Washtenaw County: | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Augusta Twp | 1411 | 1599 | 3010 | -188 | 46.88% | 53.12% | -6.25% |
| Bridgewater Twp | 550 | 352 | 902 | 198 | 60.98% | 39.02% | 21.95% |
| Chelsea City | 1300 | 1490 | 2790 | -190 | 46.59% | 53.41% | -6.81% |
| Dexter Twp (not city) | 1909 | 1672 | 3581 | 237 | 53.31% | 46.69% | 6.62% |
| Freedom Twp | 481 | 405 | 886 | 76 | 54.29% | 45.71% | 8.58% |
| Lima Twp | 926 | 709 | 1635 | 217 | 56.64% | 43.36% | 13.27% |
| Lodi Twp | 2104 | 1590 | 3694 | 514 | 56.96% | 43.04% | 13.91% |
| Lyndon Twp | 812 | 718 | 1530 | 94 | 53.07% | 46.93% | 6.14% |
| Manchester Twp | 1299 | 1168 | 2467 | 131 | 52.66% | 47.34% | 5.31% |
| Milan City | 822 | 822 | 1644 | 0 | 50.00% | 50.00% | 0.00% |
| Northfield Twp | 2325 | 2027 | 4352 | 298 | 53.42% | 46.58% | 6.85% |
| Salem Twp | 2130 | 1330 | 3460 | 800 | 61.56% | 38.44% | 23.12% |
| Saline City | 2658 | 2418 | 5076 | 240 | 52.36% | 47.64% | 4.73% |
| Saline Twp | 612 | 464 | 1076 | 148 | 56.88% | 43.12% | 13.75% |
| Scio Twp (partial) | 2122 | 3181 | 5303 | -1059 | 40.02% | 59.98% | -19.97% |
| Sharon Twp | 630 | 440 | 1070 | 190 | 58.88% | 41.12% | 17.76% |
| Sylvan Twp | 983 | 819 | 1802 | 164 | 54.55% | 45.45% | 9.10% |
| Webster Twp | 2097 | 1707 | 3804 | 390 | 55.13% | 44.87% | 10.25% |
| York Twp | 2367 | 1623 | 3990 | 744 | 59.32% | 40.68% | 18.65% |
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Total | 184081 | 151973 | 336054 | 32108 | 54.78% | 45.22% | 9.55% |
| 2008 | |||||||
| Walberg | Schauer | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff | |
| Branch County | 9866 | 6878 | 16744 | 2988 | 58.92% | 41.08% | 17.85% |
| Eaton County | 24878 | 27655 | 52533 | -2777 | 47.36% | 52.64% | -5.29% |
| Hillsdale County | 12015 | 6981 | 18996 | 5034 | 63.25% | 36.75% | 26.50% |
| Jackson County | 34231 | 34978 | 69209 | -747 | 49.46% | 50.54% | -1.08% |
| Lenawee County | 22953 | 22019 | 44972 | 934 | 51.04% | 48.96% | 2.08% |
| Monroe County | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Washtenaw County: | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Augusta Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Bridgewater Twp | 523 | 428 | 951 | 95 | 54.99% | 45.01% | 9.99% |
| Chelsea City | 1156 | 1567 | 2723 | -411 | 42.45% | 57.55% | -15.09% |
| Dexter Twp (not city) | 1623 | 1925 | 3548 | -302 | 45.74% | 54.26% | -8.51% |
| Freedom Twp | 461 | 397 | 858 | 64 | 53.73% | 46.27% | 7.46% |
| Lima Twp | 921 | 854 | 1775 | 67 | 51.89% | 48.11% | 3.77% |
| Lodi Twp | 1905 | 1551 | 3456 | 354 | 55.12% | 44.88% | 10.24% |
| Lyndon Twp | 687 | 769 | 1456 | -82 | 47.18% | 52.82% | -5.63% |
| Manchester Twp | 1197 | 1273 | 2470 | -76 | 48.46% | 51.54% | -3.08% |
| Milan City | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Northfield Twp | 1845 | 2119 | 3964 | -274 | 46.54% | 53.46% | -6.91% |
| Salem Twp | 1858 | 1349 | 3207 | 509 | 57.94% | 42.06% | 15.87% |
| Saline City | 2235 | 2484 | 4719 | -249 | 47.36% | 52.64% | -5.28% |
| Saline Twp | 556 | 416 | 972 | 140 | 57.20% | 42.80% | 14.40% |
| Scio Twp (partial) | 1825 | 3305 | 5130 | -1480 | 35.58% | 64.42% | -28.85% |
| Sharon Twp | 542 | 447 | 989 | 95 | 54.80% | 45.20% | 9.61% |
| Sylvan Twp | 896 | 877 | 1773 | 19 | 50.54% | 49.46% | 1.07% |
| Webster Twp | 1849 | 1971 | 3820 | -122 | 48.40% | 51.60% | -3.19% |
| York Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Total | 124022 | 120243 | 244265 | 3779 | 50.77% | 49.23% | 1.55% |
| 2010 | |||||||
| Walberg | Schauer | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff | |
| Branch County | 7243 | 4738 | 11981 | 2505 | 60.45% | 39.55% | 20.91% |
| Eaton County | 18858 | 20142 | 39000 | -1284 | 48.35% | 51.65% | -3.29% |
| Hillsdale County | 8682 | 4594 | 13276 | 4088 | 65.40% | 34.60% | 30.79% |
| Jackson County | 25512 | 21776 | 47288 | 3736 | 53.95% | 46.05% | 7.90% |
| Lenawee County | 16510 | 14037 | 30547 | 2473 | 54.05% | 45.95% | 8.10% |
| Monroe County | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Washtenaw County: | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Augusta Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Bridgewater Twp | 416 | 279 | 695 | 137 | 59.86% | 40.14% | 19.71% |
| Chelsea City | 935 | 1161 | 2096 | -226 | 44.61% | 55.39% | -10.78% |
| Dexter Twp (not city) | 1414 | 1311 | 2725 | 103 | 51.89% | 48.11% | 3.78% |
| Freedom Twp | 392 | 277 | 669 | 115 | 58.59% | 41.41% | 17.19% |
| Lima Twp | 803 | 631 | 1434 | 172 | 56.00% | 44.00% | 11.99% |
| Lodi Twp | 1608 | 1141 | 2749 | 467 | 58.49% | 41.51% | 16.99% |
| Lyndon Twp | 561 | 547 | 1108 | 14 | 50.63% | 49.37% | 1.26% |
| Manchester Twp | 946 | 900 | 1846 | 46 | 51.25% | 48.75% | 2.49% |
| Milan City | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Northfield Twp | 1622 | 1226 | 2848 | 396 | 56.95% | 43.05% | 13.90% |
| Salem Twp | 1620 | 886 | 2506 | 734 | 64.64% | 35.36% | 29.29% |
| Saline City | 1746 | 1695 | 3441 | 51 | 50.74% | 49.26% | 1.48% |
| Saline Twp | 408 | 273 | 681 | 135 | 59.91% | 40.09% | 19.82% |
| Scio Twp (partial) | 1516 | 2381 | 3897 | -865 | 38.90% | 61.10% | -22.20% |
| Sharon Twp | 480 | 337 | 817 | 143 | 58.75% | 41.25% | 17.50% |
| Sylvan Twp | 745 | 638 | 1383 | 107 | 53.87% | 46.13% | 7.74% |
| Webster Twp | 1636 | 1417 | 3053 | 219 | 53.59% | 46.41% | 7.17% |
| York Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | |||
| Total | 93653 | 80387 | 174040 | 13266 | 53.81% | 46.19% | 7.62% |
0 comments:
Post a Comment