Incumbent - Dr. Dan Benishek (R-Iron River)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 2.
Challengers - Gary McDowell (D-Rudyard)
Update - 5-16-2012 - Gary McDowell and Dan Benishek are in a rematch from 2010.
The Previous Congressional District 1 information is here.
There is little minor change from the old first district in terms of partisanship. The old district had an approximate 6278 Obama vote spread. This one has an approximate 4706 Obama vote spread. The new district has a 38761 vote spread. The old district had a 25677 Bush spread, 3700 Posthumus vote spread, and 27000 Granholm spread. Given the history of the volatile politics and heavy number of independents Up North, this is still a swing district. It's conservative, but not republican. Bart Stupak's won here for years. I think he might have won re-election if he ran, too.
The changes are the additions of Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, and part of Mason Counties. Grand Traverse and Kalkaska lean GOP. Leelanau and Mason County usually lean slightly GOP, but voted for Obama and Dan Scripps. Manistee County is a swing county. The district also loses Iosco, Arenac, Gladwin, Ogemaw, and its portion of Bay County. All of those areas are swing areas with various leanings except Bay County, which is democrat leaning in even the rural areas.
Dan Benishek won big in 2010. He beat the strongest democrat running by 25000 vote (21,000 in the current district). Part of that is due to the revolt against the democrats, Obamacare, Granholm, and spending. How will Obama affect things in 2012? He did very well on the sunset coast, which has a Chicago influence. I think Benishek's strongest attribute is his geography. This district votes for yoopers, even if "trolls" are now the majority. Yoopers often vote for yoopers over trolls. Trolls vote for either yoopers or trolls.
I can never call a North Michigan seat safe. I will say it leans GOP for now, depending on who runs for it. Sheltrown doesn't live in the district anymore. Barcia is further away from the district. McDowell, Nerat, Neumann, and Lahti lost their races. There's a couple of strong names to watch out for still. Rich Brown and Pat Gagliardi are the two that comes to mind. The bench is weaker for the dems than in the past, but it's still fairly deep.
Here's the two party (no 3rd party votes) results here for Obama, Bush 04, and Dan Benishek (from the portion in the district) in 2010.
| 2008 | |||||||
| McCain | Obama | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff | |
| Alcona | 3404 | 2896 | 6300 | 508 | 54.03% | 45.97% | 8.06% |
| Alger | 2188 | 2472 | 4660 | -284 | 46.95% | 53.05% | -6.09% |
| Alpena | 7125 | 7705 | 14830 | -580 | 48.04% | 51.96% | -3.91% |
| Antrim | 7506 | 6079 | 13585 | 1427 | 55.25% | 44.75% | 10.50% |
| Baraga | 1846 | 1725 | 3571 | 121 | 51.69% | 48.31% | 3.39% |
| Benzie | 4687 | 5451 | 10138 | -764 | 46.23% | 53.77% | -7.54% |
| Charlevoix | 7306 | 6817 | 14123 | 489 | 51.73% | 48.27% | 3.46% |
| Cheboygan | 6920 | 6720 | 13640 | 200 | 50.73% | 49.27% | 1.47% |
| Chippewa | 8267 | 8184 | 16451 | 83 | 50.25% | 49.75% | 0.50% |
| Crawford | 3561 | 3441 | 7002 | 120 | 50.86% | 49.14% | 1.71% |
| Delta | 8763 | 9974 | 18737 | -1211 | 46.77% | 53.23% | -6.46% |
| Dickinson | 7049 | 5995 | 13044 | 1054 | 54.04% | 45.96% | 8.08% |
| Emmet | 9314 | 8515 | 17829 | 799 | 52.24% | 47.76% | 4.48% |
| Gogebic | 3330 | 4757 | 8087 | -1427 | 41.18% | 58.82% | -17.65% |
| Grand Traverse | 24716 | 23258 | 47974 | 1458 | 51.52% | 48.48% | 3.04% |
| Houghton | 8101 | 7476 | 15577 | 625 | 52.01% | 47.99% | 4.01% |
| Iron | 2947 | 3080 | 6027 | -133 | 48.90% | 51.10% | -2.21% |
| Kalkaska | 4527 | 3780 | 8307 | 747 | 54.50% | 45.50% | 8.99% |
| Keeweenaw | 756 | 610 | 1366 | 146 | 55.34% | 44.66% | 10.69% |
| Leelanau | 6938 | 7355 | 14293 | -417 | 48.54% | 51.46% | -2.92% |
| Luce | 1490 | 1191 | 2681 | 299 | 55.58% | 44.42% | 11.15% |
| Mackinac | 3268 | 3027 | 6295 | 241 | 51.91% | 48.09% | 3.83% |
| Manistee | 5510 | 7235 | 12745 | -1725 | 43.23% | 56.77% | -13.53% |
| Marquette | 12906 | 19635 | 32541 | -6729 | 39.66% | 60.34% | -20.68% |
| Menominee | 4855 | 5981 | 10836 | -1126 | 44.80% | 55.20% | -10.39% |
| Montmorency | 2841 | 2403 | 5244 | 438 | 54.18% | 45.82% | 8.35% |
| Ontonagon | 1823 | 1966 | 3789 | -143 | 48.11% | 51.89% | -3.77% |
| Oscoda | 2320 | 1887 | 4207 | 433 | 55.15% | 44.85% | 10.29% |
| Otsego | 6752 | 5634 | 12386 | 1118 | 54.51% | 45.49% | 9.03% |
| Presque Isle | 3606 | 3722 | 7328 | -116 | 49.21% | 50.79% | -1.58% |
| Schoolcraft | 2058 | 2184 | 4242 | -126 | 48.51% | 51.49% | -2.97% |
| Mason County: | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Freesoil Twp | 168 | 287 | 455 | -119 | 36.92% | 63.08% | -26.15% |
| Grant Twp | 199 | 295 | 494 | -96 | 40.28% | 59.72% | -19.43% |
| Hamlin Twp (part) | 1058 | 1008 | 2066 | 50 | 51.21% | 48.79% | 2.42% |
| Meade Twp | 42 | 41 | 83 | 1 | 50.60% | 49.40% | 1.20% |
| Sheridan Twp | 197 | 302 | 499 | -105 | 39.48% | 60.52% | -21.04% |
| Sherman Twp | 276 | 297 | 573 | -21 | 48.17% | 51.83% | -3.66% |
| Victory Twp | 386 | 327 | 713 | 59 | 54.14% | 45.86% | 8.27% |
| Total | 179006 | 183712 | 362718 | -4706 | 49.35% | 50.65% | -1.30% |
| 2004 | |||||||
| Bush | Kerry | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff | |
| Alcona | 3592 | 2871 | 6463 | 721 | 55.58% | 44.42% | 11.16% |
| Alger | 2318 | 2395 | 4713 | -77 | 49.18% | 50.82% | -1.63% |
| Alpena | 7665 | 7407 | 15072 | 258 | 50.86% | 49.14% | 1.71% |
| Antrim | 8379 | 5072 | 13451 | 3307 | 62.29% | 37.71% | 24.59% |
| Baraga | 1977 | 1660 | 3637 | 317 | 54.36% | 45.64% | 8.72% |
| Benzie | 5284 | 4383 | 9667 | 901 | 54.66% | 45.34% | 9.32% |
| Charlevoix | 8214 | 5729 | 13943 | 2485 | 58.91% | 41.09% | 17.82% |
| Cheboygan | 7798 | 5941 | 13739 | 1857 | 56.76% | 43.24% | 13.52% |
| Chippewa | 9122 | 7203 | 16325 | 1919 | 55.88% | 44.12% | 11.75% |
| Crawford | 4017 | 3126 | 7143 | 891 | 56.24% | 43.76% | 12.47% |
| Delta | 9630 | 9381 | 19011 | 249 | 50.65% | 49.35% | 1.31% |
| Dickinson | 7734 | 5650 | 13384 | 2084 | 57.79% | 42.21% | 15.57% |
| Emmet | 10332 | 6846 | 17178 | 3486 | 60.15% | 39.85% | 20.29% |
| Gogebic | 3935 | 4421 | 8356 | -486 | 47.09% | 52.91% | -5.82% |
| Grand Traverse | 27446 | 18256 | 45702 | 9190 | 60.05% | 39.95% | 20.11% |
| Houghton | 8889 | 6731 | 15620 | 2158 | 56.91% | 43.09% | 13.82% |
| Iron | 3224 | 3215 | 6439 | 9 | 50.07% | 49.93% | 0.14% |
| Kalkaska | 5084 | 3189 | 8273 | 1895 | 61.45% | 38.55% | 22.91% |
| Keeweenaw | 781 | 630 | 1411 | 151 | 55.35% | 44.65% | 10.70% |
| Leelanau | 7733 | 6048 | 13781 | 1685 | 56.11% | 43.89% | 12.23% |
| Luce | 1749 | 1049 | 2798 | 700 | 62.51% | 37.49% | 25.02% |
| Mackinac | 3706 | 2819 | 6525 | 887 | 56.80% | 43.20% | 13.59% |
| Manistee | 6295 | 6272 | 12567 | 23 | 50.09% | 49.91% | 0.18% |
| Marquette | 14690 | 17412 | 32102 | -2722 | 45.76% | 54.24% | -8.48% |
| Menominee | 5942 | 5326 | 11268 | 616 | 52.73% | 47.27% | 5.47% |
| Montmorency | 3300 | 2196 | 5496 | 1104 | 60.04% | 39.96% | 20.09% |
| Ontonagon | 2262 | 1863 | 4125 | 399 | 54.84% | 45.16% | 9.67% |
| Oscoda | 2570 | 1792 | 4362 | 778 | 58.92% | 41.08% | 17.84% |
| Otsego | 7470 | 4674 | 12144 | 2796 | 61.51% | 38.49% | 23.02% |
| Presque Isle | 3982 | 3432 | 7414 | 550 | 53.71% | 46.29% | 7.42% |
| Schoolcraft | 2267 | 2137 | 4404 | 130 | 51.48% | 48.52% | 2.95% |
| Mason County: | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Freesoil Twp | 210 | 274 | 484 | -64 | 43.39% | 56.61% | -13.22% |
| Grant Twp | 203 | 245 | 448 | -42 | 45.31% | 54.69% | -9.38% |
| Hamlin Twp (part) | 1186 | 799 | 1985 | 387 | 59.75% | 40.25% | 19.50% |
| Meade Twp | 45 | 37 | 82 | 8 | 54.88% | 45.12% | 9.76% |
| Sheridan Twp | 234 | 241 | 475 | -7 | 49.26% | 50.74% | -1.47% |
| Sherman Twp | 324 | 240 | 564 | 84 | 57.45% | 42.55% | 14.89% |
| Victory Twp | 405 | 271 | 676 | 134 | 59.91% | 40.09% | 19.82% |
| Total | 199994 | 161233 | 361227 | 38761 | 55.37% | 44.63% | 10.73% |
| 2010 | |||||||
| Benishek | McDowell | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff | |
| Alcona | 2603 | 1433 | 4036 | 1170 | 64.49% | 35.51% | 28.99% |
| Alger | 1749 | 1761 | 3510 | -12 | 49.83% | 50.17% | -0.34% |
| Alpena | 5569 | 3794 | 9363 | 1775 | 59.48% | 40.52% | 18.96% |
| Antrim | 6041 | 3491 | 9532 | 2550 | 63.38% | 36.62% | 26.75% |
| Baraga | 1382 | 1124 | 2506 | 258 | 55.15% | 44.85% | 10.30% |
| Benzie | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Charlevoix | 5752 | 3767 | 9519 | 1985 | 60.43% | 39.57% | 20.85% |
| Cheboygan | 5502 | 3905 | 9407 | 1597 | 58.49% | 41.51% | 16.98% |
| Chippewa | 5477 | 5775 | 11252 | -298 | 48.68% | 51.32% | -2.65% |
| Crawford | 2547 | 1805 | 4352 | 742 | 58.52% | 41.48% | 17.05% |
| Delta | 6779 | 5730 | 12509 | 1049 | 54.19% | 45.81% | 8.39% |
| Dickinson | 5577 | 3421 | 8998 | 2156 | 61.98% | 38.02% | 23.96% |
| Emmet | 7397 | 5040 | 12437 | 2357 | 59.48% | 40.52% | 18.95% |
| Gogebic | 2313 | 2759 | 5072 | -446 | 45.60% | 54.40% | -8.79% |
| Grand Traverse | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Houghton | 6628 | 4926 | 11554 | 1702 | 57.37% | 42.63% | 14.73% |
| Iron | 2432 | 1894 | 4326 | 538 | 56.22% | 43.78% | 12.44% |
| Kalkaska | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Keeweenaw | 641 | 412 | 1053 | 229 | 60.87% | 39.13% | 21.75% |
| Leelanau | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Luce | 1017 | 808 | 1825 | 209 | 55.73% | 44.27% | 11.45% |
| Mackinac | 2351 | 2200 | 4551 | 151 | 51.66% | 48.34% | 3.32% |
| Manistee | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Marquette | 9301 | 11181 | 20482 | -1880 | 45.41% | 54.59% | -9.18% |
| Menominee | 3823 | 2998 | 6821 | 825 | 56.05% | 43.95% | 12.10% |
| Montmorency | 2103 | 1314 | 3417 | 789 | 61.55% | 38.45% | 23.09% |
| Ontonagon | 1455 | 1278 | 2733 | 177 | 53.24% | 46.76% | 6.48% |
| Oscoda | 1520 | 946 | 2466 | 574 | 61.64% | 38.36% | 23.28% |
| Otsego | 5133 | 2995 | 8128 | 2138 | 63.15% | 36.85% | 26.30% |
| Presque Isle | 2914 | 2203 | 5117 | 711 | 56.95% | 43.05% | 13.89% |
| Schoolcraft | 1587 | 1423 | 3010 | 164 | 52.72% | 47.28% | 5.45% |
| Mason County: | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Freesoil Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Grant Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Hamlin Twp (part) | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Meade Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Sheridan Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Sherman Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Victory Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Total | 99593 | 78383 | 177976 | 21210 | 55.96% | 44.04% | 11.92% |
Overall, I'd consider this a slight R lean, but not overwhelmingly so. North Michigan seats are tough defenses for the party in power if things aren't going well. It's just a very independent place with little to no tolerance for old fashion politicalspeak, regardless of party. This district will never be easy for anybody right now.
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