Incumbent - Dave Camp (R-Midland)
Years in office as of 2012 election - 22.
The old 4th District information is here
Challenger - Debra Freidell Wirth (D-Eagle)
This district changes a bit compared to last time. It loses Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, and Leelanau Counties to Dan Benishek. They all lean R, although Leelanau less so. It loses Spaulding (Dem), Bridgeport (Dem), and part of Saginaw Township (competitive) in Saginaw County to Dale Kildee. It regains Clinton County (Slight R lean) from Mike Rogers which was in the district in the 90's. It picks up the rest of Shiawassee County (Competitive) from Rogers, Wexford County (R) from Huizenga, and Gladwin and Ogemaw Counties (Both swing counties) from Benishek. It also picks up from Kildee the Frankenmuth area, which is staunch Republican.
I think this district is safe for Camp, although picking up Ogemaw can be a problem because of ex state-reps Dale and Joel Sheltrown, both strong potential candidates. I'd rather have him pick up Ogemaw than Bay County/City and ex-Congressman Jim Barcia though. Barcia has shown in the past that he can win anywhere he's run. So has Joel Sheltrown, but Sheltrown's an ex state rep and not an ex-congressman. Sometimes it's not the partisan numbers that matter as much as who lives there.
The rest of the district stayed the same. It's strong for Camp, although it could be competitive if Camp steps down. The big reason is Isabella County, Mt Pleasant is fast growing and blue due to Central Michigan University. Camp does well in Mt Pleasant. There is not a strong bench for the dems in the district outside of Ogemaw County. The only county Camp himself has had trouble with is Montcalm, due to Greenville native Mike Huckleberry coming close to winning twice. Huckleberry was later a one term state rep who lost after supporting Granholm's tax plans.
The partisan numbers are slightly better at the top of the ticket. Obama did win the new district with a 3700 vote spread. The old district had a 6400 vote spread. Bush has a 37000 vote spread in the new district, 35000 in the old one. Camp had an 85000 vote spread in his old district, and 57000 vote spread in the areas he's represented in the new district. Those are approximates, since Saginaw Township was split.
Here's the Obama, Bush, and 2010 Camp numbers:
| McCain | Obama | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff | |
| Clare | 6793 | 7496 | 14289 | -703 | 47.54% | 52.46% | -4.92% |
| Clinton | 19726 | 20005 | 39731 | -279 | 49.65% | 50.35% | -0.70% |
| Gladwin | 6391 | 6590 | 12981 | -199 | 49.23% | 50.77% | -1.53% |
| Gratiot | 8322 | 9105 | 17427 | -783 | 47.75% | 52.25% | -4.49% |
| Isabella | 11220 | 16679 | 27899 | -5459 | 40.22% | 59.78% | -19.57% |
| Mecosta | 9283 | 9101 | 18384 | 182 | 50.49% | 49.51% | 0.99% |
| Midland | 22263 | 20701 | 42964 | 1562 | 51.82% | 48.18% | 3.64% |
| Missaukee | 4469 | 2898 | 7367 | 1571 | 60.66% | 39.34% | 21.32% |
| Montcalm | 13291 | 13208 | 26499 | 83 | 50.16% | 49.84% | 0.31% |
| Ogemaw | 5133 | 5391 | 10524 | -258 | 48.77% | 51.23% | -2.45% |
| Osceola | 5973 | 4855 | 10828 | 1118 | 55.16% | 44.84% | 10.33% |
| Roscommon | 6727 | 7082 | 13809 | -355 | 48.71% | 51.29% | -2.57% |
| Shiawassee | 16268 | 19397 | 35665 | -3129 | 45.61% | 54.39% | -8.77% |
| Wexford | 8044 | 7379 | 15423 | 665 | 52.16% | 47.84% | 4.31% |
| Saginaw County | 42225 | 60276 | 102501 | -18051 | 41.19% | 58.81% | -17.61% |
| Blumfield Twp | -850 | -358 | -1208 | -492 | 70.36% | 29.64% | 40.73% |
| Bridgeport Twp | -1916 | -3595 | -5511 | 1679 | 34.77% | 65.23% | -30.47% |
| Buena Vista Twp | -562 | -3813 | -4375 | 3251 | 12.85% | 87.15% | -74.31% |
| Carrollton Twp | -1065 | -1866 | -2931 | 801 | 36.34% | 63.66% | -27.33% |
| Saginaw City | -4419 | -18591 | -23010 | 14172 | 19.20% | 80.80% | -61.59% |
| Saginaw Twp(part) | -11368 | -11944 | -23312 | 576 | 48.76% | 51.24% | -2.47% |
| Spaulding Twp | -454 | -658 | -1112 | 204 | 40.83% | 59.17% | -18.35% |
| Zilwaukee City | -384 | -501 | -885 | 117 | 43.39% | 56.61% | -13.22% |
| Zilwaukee Twp | -23 | -22 | -45 | -1 | 51.11% | 48.89% | 2.22% |
| Total | 165087 | 168815 | 333902 | -3728 | 49.44% | 50.56% | -1.12% |
| Bush | Kerry | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff | |
| Clare | 7088 | 6984 | 14072 | 104 | 50.37% | 49.63% | 0.74% |
| Clinton | 21989 | 15483 | 37472 | 6506 | 58.68% | 41.32% | 17.36% |
| Gladwin | 6770 | 6343 | 13113 | 427 | 51.63% | 48.37% | 3.26% |
| Gratiot | 9834 | 7377 | 17211 | 2457 | 57.14% | 42.86% | 14.28% |
| Isabella | 11754 | 12334 | 24088 | -580 | 48.80% | 51.20% | -2.41% |
| Mecosta | 9710 | 7730 | 17440 | 1980 | 55.68% | 44.32% | 11.35% |
| Midland | 24369 | 18355 | 42724 | 6014 | 57.04% | 42.96% | 14.08% |
| Missaukee | 5055 | 2319 | 7374 | 2736 | 68.55% | 31.45% | 37.10% |
| Montcalm | 14968 | 11471 | 26439 | 3497 | 56.61% | 43.39% | 13.23% |
| Ogemaw | 5454 | 5215 | 10669 | 239 | 51.12% | 48.88% | 2.24% |
| Osceola | 6599 | 4467 | 11066 | 2132 | 59.63% | 40.37% | 19.27% |
| Roscommon | 7364 | 6810 | 14174 | 554 | 51.95% | 48.05% | 3.91% |
| Shiawassee | 19407 | 16881 | 36288 | 2526 | 53.48% | 46.52% | 6.96% |
| Wexford | 8966 | 6034 | 15000 | 2932 | 59.77% | 40.23% | 19.55% |
| Saginaw County | 47165 | 54887 | 102052 | -7722 | 46.22% | 53.78% | -7.57% |
| Blumfield Twp | -896 | -362 | -1258 | -534 | 71.22% | 28.78% | 42.45% |
| Bridgeport Twp | -2103 | -3474 | -5577 | 1371 | 37.71% | 62.29% | -24.58% |
| Buena Vista Twp | -713 | -3472 | -4185 | 2759 | 17.04% | 82.96% | -65.93% |
| Carrollton Twp | -1277 | -1730 | -3007 | 453 | 42.47% | 57.53% | -15.06% |
| Saginaw City | -5800 | -16992 | -22792 | 11192 | 25.45% | 74.55% | -49.10% |
| Saginaw Twp(part) | -12387 | -10810 | -23197 | -1577 | 53.40% | 46.60% | 6.80% |
| Spaulding Twp | -491 | -669 | -1160 | 178 | 42.33% | 57.67% | -15.34% |
| Zilwaukee City | -452 | -505 | -957 | 53 | 47.23% | 52.77% | -5.54% |
| Zilwaukee Twp | -36 | -17 | -53 | -19 | 67.92% | 32.08% | 35.85% |
| Total | 182337 | 144659 | 326996 | 37678 | 55.76% | 44.24% | 11.52% |
| Camp | Campbell | Total | Diff | GOP | DEM | Diff | |
| Clare | 6040 | 2836 | 8876 | 3204 | 68.05% | 31.95% | 36.10% |
| Clinton | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Gladwin | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Gratiot | 7462 | 3174 | 10636 | 4288 | 70.16% | 29.84% | 40.32% |
| Isabella | 9577 | 5744 | 15321 | 3833 | 62.51% | 37.49% | 25.02% |
| Mecosta | 8039 | 3339 | 11378 | 4700 | 70.65% | 29.35% | 41.31% |
| Midland | 20121 | 7823 | 27944 | 12298 | 72.00% | 28.00% | 44.01% |
| Missaukee | 4055 | 1053 | 5108 | 3002 | 79.39% | 20.61% | 58.77% |
| Montcalm | 11839 | 5145 | 16984 | 6694 | 69.71% | 30.29% | 39.41% |
| Ogemaw | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Osceola | 5458 | 1823 | 7281 | 3635 | 74.96% | 25.04% | 49.92% |
| Roscommon | 6621 | 2832 | 9453 | 3789 | 70.04% | 29.96% | 40.08% |
| Shiawassee | 7322 | 4162 | 11484 | 3160 | 63.76% | 36.24% | 27.52% |
| Wexford | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Saginaw County | 28809 | 15076 | 43885 | 13733 | 65.65% | 34.35% | 31.29% |
| Blumfield Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Bridgeport Twp | -1779 | -1888 | -3667 | 109 | 48.51% | 51.49% | -2.97% |
| Buena Vista Twp | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Carrollton Twp | -952 | -801 | -1753 | -151 | 54.31% | 45.69% | 8.61% |
| Saginaw City | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Saginaw Twp(part) | -10555 | -5484 | -16039 | -5071 | 65.81% | 34.19% | 31.62% |
| Spaulding Twp | -396 | -339 | -735 | -57 | 53.88% | 46.12% | 7.76% |
| Zilwaukee City | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | ||
| Zilwaukee Twp | -59 | -33 | -92 | -26 | 64.13% | 35.87% | 28.26% |
| Total | 101602 | 44462 | 146064 | 57140 | 69.56% | 30.44% | 39.12% |
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