July 28th:
GOP - Too close to call. I'm afraid Snyder may pull this off. You have three candidates running as conservatives. One liberal, and Tom George. I have not seen any of the conservatives get up and run away with this. Hoekstra is the higher up establishment choice (regardless of what is said). Cox is the conservative PAC's endorsement choice and has a lot of the gun owner support. Bouchard has a lot of the local activist support, at least in Livingston County. Snyder is one of the most opposed by all these camps. My concern is a split vote between all of them with Snyder's money taking the win with the help of Joe Schwarz types of crossovers. I don't know who's going to take this, but I think Snyder loses the general by 10-20%, to either Dillon or Bernero. So if you don't want a candidate who is not pro-life, who is unknown on most issues, who outsourced jobs to China, and who is tied with the economic liberal Center for Michigan with Phil Power, get out and vote, and not for Snyder. Vote for Mike Cox.
The final percentages are this:
Rick Snyder - 36.44%
Pete Hoekstra - 26.86%
Mike Cox - 22.92%
Mike Bouchard - 12.16%
Tom George - 1.62%
The winner had barely over 1/3 of the vote. Nobody broke 40% Nobody except Pete Hoekstra broke 50% in any county. Those who broke 45% are:
Snyder - Arenac (49.34%), Midland (46.75%), Washtenaw (48.97%)
Hoekstra - Berrien (52.75%), Mason (52.71%), Oceana (46.76%), Ottawa (59.27%)
Cox - Alger (46.14%)
Snyder won a lot of counties between 38-43% of the vote. Cox won a few in the mid 30% range. Hoekstra won some west MI counties big.
I got the typical "unity" email from MIGOP today. It's one thing when I'm asked to back a candidate I agree with 70% of the time instead of 90%. It's tough when it is 50% of the time, but I've done it, with McCain and Bush. This is different. I have a lot of major philosophical disagreements with Snyder, and he doesn't have an advantage of running against a guy I personally dislike as well as have the philosophy disagreements. Virg Bernero hasn't pissed me off to the point that Obama or John Kerry do. Luckily for Snyder, his opponent isn't Andy Dillon. I gave my reasons to oppose Snyder already. That's done. Now this is what he must do to get my support.
Snyder needs to start giving specifics, stop being generic, and mention what his plan is. Not corporate-political speak talking points about "reinventing" Michigan, but his meat and potatoes plan. If he does that, without tax increases, tax shifts, or big spending, I'll consider a vote. There's other matters I'll need to be convinced on before giving my support as well. Judicial matters and redistricting proposals. Snyder needs to give me something to work with to jump on board.
If Snyder turns out to be Bill Milliken II - he can do it without my support. Milliken gave us the Single Business Tax, was a gun grabber, and radical pro-abortion. More taxes. More government. Less freedom. Sounds like Granholm. Milliken's legacy is not so hot either. He left office when Michigan was at its historical high in unemployment. December 1982 - 16.8% If Snyder's a Milliken type, he won't get my vote. If he turns out to be Joe Schwarz II - he won't get my vote.
Snyder's the nominee. Now he has to get the 65% of the Republicans who did not vote for him in the primary and avoid a double flank from the left and right which will certainly lead to his defeat. Virg will attack his left and will attack as a populist against Snyder's corporate background, just as Granholm did to DeVos in 06. It will hurt him bad. Can Snyder recover from the onslaught? That depends on him shoring up the GOP base, as well as having a solid plan, communicating it (problem from DeVos campaign), and selling it.
The ball is in his court. Whether I vote for Snyder or the libertarian depends on what he does from here. Until then, I will vote for Mike and Bill Rogers, Joe Hune, Justice Young, Bill Schuette/Mike Bishop, and the Sec of State nominee.
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