MI-01 - The Amazing near tie between Allen and Benishek

This is one of the most interesting races in one of the most interesting congressional districts in the country. Troll vs Yooper. A "Troll" for those who don't know live below the Mackinac Bridge. A Yooper is someone from the Upper Penninsula. In this primary, Two trolls faced four yoopers. The candidates are:

Dan Benishek - A doctor from Crystal Falls in Iron County. (Yooper)
Jason Allen - A state senator who moved from Traverse City to Emmet County (Troll)
Tom Stillings - A township trustee and activist from Eastport/Torch Lake in Antrim County (Troll)
Linda Goldthorpe - A frequent candidate and attorney from McMillan in Luce County. (Yooper)
Don Hooper - A frequent candidate from Iron River (Yooper) in Iron County.
Patrick Donlon - A candidate from St Ignace in Mackinac County (Yooper)

Yoopers took 54% of the vote. Trolls took 45% of the vote.
Benishek - 38.12% - leading by one vote before possible recount.
Allen - 38.12% - trailing by one vote before possible recount.
Stillings - 7.63%
Goldthorpe - 7.03%
Hooper - 5.59%
Donlon - 3.57%

Geography was a major factor in this race. Allen did very well in his state senate district. He did poorly in the UP - except for three counties in his state senate district. Alger. Mackinac. Chippewa. They voted for the troll. This continues Allen's state senate strength in his district. Benishek did very well in the Central/Western UP and it carried him to a one vote lead. Allen won the other lower peninsula votes, but by a smaller margin. I wish I had the inland/coastal breakdowns in places like Antrim and Charlevoix counties, but I don't have the time to go into that detail yet. I divided the area up into three areas with almost equal populations.

Here's Allen's District:

Allen's District	Allen	Benishek	Donlon	Goldthorpe	Hooper	Stillings	Total	Allen	Benishek
ANTRIM	2,549	910	134	232	176	793	4,794	53.17%	18.98%
CHARLEVOIX	2,282	907	153	198	150	534	4,224	54.02%	21.47%
CHEBOYGAN	2,228	1,293	114	219	120	228	4,202	53.02%	30.77%
CHIPPEWA	1,788	921	109	223	131	176	3,348	53.41%	27.51%
EMMET	2,634	1,186	121	184	111	319	4,555	57.83%	26.04%
MACKINAC	763	591	55	206	49	92	1,756	43.45%	33.66%
PRESQUE ISLE	845	828	41	77	36	61	1,888	44.76%	43.86%
	13,089	6,636	727	1,339	773	2,203	24,767	52.85%	26.79%

It's a whooping there. 53% to 27% Interesting enough, much of that is also Gary McDowell's district and he's the opponent. The question is this. Who did Tom Stillings and Linda Goldthorpe take votes from? Stillings took 16% in his home county of Antrim, , 13% in Charlevoix next door, and 7% in Emmet just north of there. He also took 5%+ in Cheboygan and Chippewa. Goldthorpe took 12% in Mackinac County, next to her home. She took 5%+ in Cheboygan and Chippewa counties. Nobody else broke 5% in this area. Presque Isle has always been Allen's most hostile county in the district.

The competitive northern lower outside of Allen's district was also interesting. Nobody ran away with this:

	Allen	Benishek	Donlon	Goldthorpe	Hooper	Stillings	Total	Allen	Benishek
ALCONA	559	545	107	165	86	112	1,574	35.51%	34.63%
ALPENA	1,293	1,424	104	171	91	125	3,208	40.31%	44.39%
ARENAC	498	450	133	149	117	122	1,469	33.90%	30.63%
BAY	904	776	141	328	253	211	2,613	34.60%	29.70%
CRAWFORD	834	376	69	221	89	195	1,784	46.75%	21.08%
GLADWIN	941	624	128	313	208	160	2,374	39.64%	26.28%
IOSCO	721	988	163	280	169	265	2,586	27.88%	38.21%
MONTMORENCY	803	365	78	135	70	113	1,564	51.34%	23.34%
OGEMAW	679	644	95	253	102	167	1,940	35.00%	33.20%
OTSEGO	1,769	1,022	175	223	124	480	3,793	46.64%	26.94%
PRESQUE ISLE	845	828	41	77	36	61	1,888	44.76%	43.86%
	9846	8042	1234	2315	1345	2011	24,793	39.71%	32.44%

Allen won here too, but not by the 2-1 margin in his district. He ran 13% here behind his district numbers, and Benishek ran 6% ahead of his numbers in Allen's district. About 28% here voted for a different candidate than the top two, compared to 20% in Allen's district and 21% in Benishek's yooper base. Interesting enough, Goldthorpe, a yooper, broke 10%+ in 7 counties here. Benishek won Alpena and Iosco on the sunrise side. Donlon's three best counties are all in this area as well. Stillngs did his best in the Standish area it seems, but his best area was by his home.

The UP outside of Allen's district made its choice very clear.

ALGER	527	469	42	99	54	43	1,234	42.71%	38.01%
BARAGA	159	497	23	50	84	39	852	18.66%	58.33%
DELTA	568	1,892	74	165	290	210	3,199	17.76%	59.14%
DICKINSON	533	2,322	34	76	146	133	3,244	16.43%	71.58%
GOGEBIC	146	523	32	57	88	52	898	16.26%	58.24%
HOUGHTON	422	1,883	40	121	304	113	2,883	14.64%	65.31%
IRON	165	897	27	29	150	43	1,311	12.59%	68.42%
KEWEENAW	26	223	9	32	39	13	342	7.60%	65.20%
LUCE	219	337	17	157	28	17	775	28.26%	43.48%
MARQUETTE	1,101	2,351	75	273	320	211	4,331	25.42%	54.28%
MENOMINEE	248	708	41	64	123	61	1,245	19.92%	56.87%
ONTONAGON	133	321	27	42	126	94	743	17.90%	43.20%
SCHOOLCRAFT	278	541	38	156	77	49	1,139	24.41%	47.50%
	4525	12964	479	1321	1829	1078	22,196	20.39%	58.41%

It was almost a 3-1 margin. Benishek took an impressive 58% to Allen's 20%. Goldthorpe did well in Luce (home) and Schoolcraft counties. Hooper did well out west near his home. Stillings did well in Ontonagon for some reason. Allen did win Alger County near Marquette, although Benishek took Marquette itself and all the other counties there. Dickinson was his best county, getting 70%+ there. That's Benishek's neighboring county. Iron, Houghton, and Keewenaw are his other best areas.

All this adds up to a near tie. 1 vote. 31 counties. I don't the final result because of the recount. The two sets of questions for the general are this:

1. Can Dan Benishek carry his area in the general against McDowell? Can get get the votes out of Allen's district, normal base areas. Can he match or beat McDowell on the sunrise side?

2. Can Allen survive his UP loss to McDowell in the general with his district? Can Allen get the big numbers out of Emmet needed to win? Can he win the sunrise side?

I think Benishek is the stronger candidate in the general, but Allen's Mackinac, Luce, and Chippewa County wins are significant. I think he has a shot in the general, and that's more than I thought before.

Good luck to the winner.