LAKE ORION, Mich. (AP) — A former CIA agent who has criticized the disclosure of undercover CIA officer Valerie Plame's identity said Tuesday he is planning to run as a Democrat for the 8th Congressional District.
Jim Marcinkowski, deputy city attorney for Royal Oak, would face U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Brighton, in the 2006 general election if he wins in the Democratic primary. Marcinkowski said he is planning to run for Congress, but has not yet filed necessary paperwork.
Marcinkowski, 50, of Lake Orion, said he was Plame's classmate at the CIA, where he went on to be an operations officer in Washington from 1985-89.
"The Valerie Plame exposure was certainly personal for me ... but more important is that it is indicative of how this White House is conducting foreign affairs," he said in a telephone interview. "It's a very important issue to national security."
Jim, you're not running against Bush. You're running against Mike Rogers. Why should the people of the 8th district vote for you over Mike Rogers? I don't care about President Bush since he's not running again.
"Mike starts with a particularly large money advantage, but his money advantage will be offset by his positions on the issues," Marcinkowski said. "It's going to be money versus message."
We'll be waiting for your message, Jim.
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This is a district that's becoming more and more republican. It's not a gimme district, but the odds are certainly in the GOP's favor. It went 53.71% for Bush, and Rogers took it with 61.08% of the vote against a low funded, but spirited challenge by Bob Alexander.
The 8th district consists of all or parts of five counties. Ingham County is a democrat stronghold. Shiawassee County is marginal GOP. Livingston and Clinton County are GOP strongholds, as is the portion of Oakland County in this district. I took the two party% from the Orion Township precincts, so both the Bush and Kerry %'s are slightly inflated. These numbers are close however.
Municipality Bush, Kerry, Bush% Kerry%
TOTAL 191658, 161634, 53.71%, 45.30%
Clinton 21989, 15483, 58.16%, 40.95%
Ingham 54734, 76877, 41.14%, 57.78%
Livingston 58860, 33991, 62.79%, 36.26%
Shiawassee County:
Antrim Twp 680 432 60.82%, 38.64%
Bennington Twp 1106 712 60.24%, 38.78%
Burns Twp 1054 688 59.85%, 39.07%
Durand 773 914 45.10%, 53.33%
Laingsburg 327 279 53.26%, 45.44%
Perry 584 432 57.03%, 42.19%
Perry Twp 1255 908 57.60%, 41.67%
Sciota Twp 535 425 55.04%, 43.72%
Shiawasse Twp 804 719 52.21%, 46.69%
Vernon Twp (pt) 1374 1329 50.39%, 48.73%
Woodhill Twp 1258 905 57.55%, 41.40%
Oakland County:
Addison Twp 2403 1113 67.53%, 31.24%
Brandon Twp 4852 3030 60.70%, 37.91%
Clarkston 322 252 55.52%, 43.45%
Groveland Twp 1988 1204 61.76%, 37.04%
Holly Twp 2813 2442 52.73%, 46.77%
Independence Twp 12199 6847 63.50%, 35.64%
Oxford Twp 6155 3557 62.63%, 36.20%
Rose Twp 2139 1337 60.70%, 37.94%
Springfield Twp 4946 2710 63.99%, 35.06%
Orion Twp (Part) 8505 5048 62.75%, 37.25% (of two party vote)
My early predictions have this being another 60-40 race. Marcinkowski seems to be a one issue candidate. He also plays right into the hands of Mike Rogers. Rogers was an FBI agent. He's on the intelligence committee. National Security is his strongpoint and is what Marcinkowski is running on. He also seems to be running against Bush and not Rogers. This may work in East Lansing, but will cost him votes in the deep red areas. Bush won big everywhere outside Ingham County, and ran ahead of most republicans in Shiawassee. Rogers won Ingham County in 2002, and almost won it in 2004, despite a strong anti-Bush view there. Bush hatred may get him the East Lansing, Lansing, and Okemos vote, but that's about it.
We'll see what happens here. Mike should be safe as long as he isn't complacent. He should run this race just as he did in 2002. Ran like he was down 10%, while winning with 68%
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